It’s now been three months since I moved back to Denmark after 17 years in Scotland (I’ve been back to Scotland twice during that time, but only briefly). Although I’m still much more interested in Scottish politics than what’s happening in Denmark, I believe I’ve now starting to see things from the outside to some extent.
From my Danish vantage point, the Scottish independence movement seems to be in stasis. Yes, there are lots of discussions going on, and of course there’s a lot of outrage whenever the Tories open their mouths, but nothing tangible seems to be happening. People abroad have also moved on from Brexit, and I don’t think there’s much appetite for granting the UK another extension in September.
So if I were to gaze into my crystal ball, I think Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister, aim for a No-Deal Brexit, ask for an extension at the last minute, get a refusal, look surprised, let the UK crash out, come creeping back to the EU, get something that looks like May’s Withdrawal Agreement (just worse), and then spend the rest of his time in office making sure that Scotland doesn’t leave. And Scotland will continue to wait for permission to hold a new independence referendum, but the Tories of course won’t grant that, so nothing will happen.
Living in a small independent country where people just get on with things, it seems increasingly strange that the Scottish Government doesn’t seem to be in a rush, patiently waiting for the Tories to realise that allowing a new independence referendum is a great idea, and hoping that the more the Conservatives and Brexit wreck the country, the more people will support independence and the SNP.
I would have thought that seizing the moment would be the right thing to do, but perhaps it only seems so from abroad.