Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win?

05/10/2014 Tam

[London] Westminster by Fabrizio Sciami, on Flickr.

It’s very clear that the best way to ensure that Westminster keeps paying attention to Scotland and to the promises they made during the referendum campaign is to elect as many Yes MPs in May 2015 as possible.

I’d love to see some Scottish Green MPs elected together with a strong SNP contingent, and a Yes Alliance might be the way forward. However, given the weak Green performance in 2010, I’ll concentrate on the SNP’s chances in the following.

How many seats can the SNP realistically win? To find out, I decided to look at the question from three different angles.

Firstly, I implemented a uniform swing based on Scot Goes Pop!’s latest poll of polls (SNP 35.6%, Labour 31.3%, LD 5.8%, Con 17.2%).

Secondly, I took the constituency votes cast at the 2011 Holyrood election and calculated the equivalent Westminster result. For instance, my calculations showed that Banff and Buchan consists of 74.8% of Aberdeenshire East plus 90.2% of Banffshire and Buchan Coast, so I simply applied these percentages to the 2011 results.

Thirdly, I took the independence referendum results, assigned the results to the Westminster constituencies (in a way similar to the above, just based on the council areas instead, except for Glasgow, which published the results for the Holyrood constituencies, and Edinburgh, which used Westminster ones), and mapped the Yes vote to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. Of course the referendum was very different from an election, but it shows what a united Yes Alliance could potentially achieve.

Finally, I calculated the average of the three predictions described above and the actual 2010 result, which should take the incumbency effect into account.

The results are very interesting:

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	6	24	45	56	28
LAB	41	30	12	1	27
LD	11	3	1	2	3
CON	1	2	1	0	1

A map of the constituencies showing my rankings. The white ones are formidable, and the dark yellow ones are safe. — A map of the constituencies showing my rankings. The white ones are ‘formidable’ and the dark yellow ones are ‘safe’. Based on this map.

This means that according to uniform swing, the SNP stands to win 24 seats, but if we can convince the voters to vote like they did in 2011, the SNP will get no less than 45 seats, and if we can replicate the referendum result, a total of 56 seats is possible. However, if we look at the average of the predictions and of the 2010 result, the SNP will get 28 seats, one more than Labour.

I’ve listed all the Westminster constituencies below, ranked from formidable ones (where the SNP is not in the lead according to any of these measures) to safe ones.

List of formidable constituencies

Dumfries and Galloway

The MP elected in 2010 was Russell Brown.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	6419	14610	14401	24503	14983
LAB	23950	18367	14273	24914	20376
LD	4608	0	1473	4793	2719
CON	16501	16762	15805	17165	16558

Orkney and Shetland

The MP elected in 2010 was Alistair Carmichael.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	2042	5079	3178	10552	5213
LAB	2061	0	1078	2557	1424
LD	11989	9455	7374	14876	10924
CON	2032	2129	1016	2521	1925

List of challenging constituencies

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Moore.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	4497	12192	15017	23593	13825
LAB	5003	0	5830	5366	4050
LD	22230	15809	9772	23844	17914
CON	16555	16800	14937	17757	16512

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

The MP elected in 2010 was Tom Clarke.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	7014	13551	19277	32998	18210
LAB	27728	23273	21580	25319	24475
LD	3519	0	789	3213	1880
CON	3374	3582	2870	3081	3227

West Dunbartonshire

The MP elected in 2010 was Gemma Doyle.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8497	15133	12197	33720	17387
LAB	25905	21383	12618	22880	20697
LD	3434	0	1402	3033	1967
CON	3242	3453	3208	2863	3192

Dunfermline and West Fife

The MP elected in 2010 was Thomas Docherty.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5201	12886	19510	29281	16720
LAB	22639	17402	19912	18830	19696
LD	17169	10757	6570	14280	12194
CON	3305	3550	3519	2749	3281

Glasgow East

The MP elected in 2010 was Margaret Curran.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	7957	13007	20441	54143	23887
LAB	19797	16355	22619	40260	24758
LD	1617	0	879	3288	1446
CON	1453	1614	2269	2955	2073

Glasgow North East

The MP elected in 2010 was Willie Bain.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	4158	8775	26476	66750	26540
LAB	20100	16953	28657	45916	27907
LD	2262	0	2627	5167	2514
CON	1569	1716	3907	3584	2694

Inverclyde

The MP elected in 2010 was David Cairns.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	6577	12466	12244	27243	14633
LAB	20993	16979	12705	18809	17372
LD	5007	93	1952	4486	2885
CON	4502	4690	2187	4034	3853

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

The MP elected in 2010 was Gordon Brown.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	6550	13741	18831	29281	17101
LAB	29559	24658	19664	27831	25428
LD	4269	0	1590	4019	2470
CON	4258	4487	3083	4009	3959

Motherwell and Wishaw

The MP elected in 2010 was Frank Roy.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	7104	13246	16154	31261	16941
LAB	23910	19724	17139	22798	20893
LD	3840	0	662	3661	2041
CON	3660	3856	2933	3490	3485

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

The MP elected in 2010 was Douglas Alexander.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	7228	13508	22327	30254	18329
LAB	23842	19562	23695	25517	23154
LD	3812	0	2493	4080	2596
CON	3979	4179	6069	4258	4621

East Renfrewshire

The MP elected in 2010 was Jim Murphy.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	4535	12570	9922	24287	12829
LAB	25987	20511	15343	23413	21314
LD	4720	0	980	4252	2488
CON	15567	15823	11254	14025	14167

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

The MP elected in 2010 was Tom Greatrex.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	7564	14940	19438	31812	18439
LAB	28566	23539	19769	28289	25041
LD	5636	0	1634	5581	3213
CON	4540	4775	3911	4496	4431

List of tough constituencies

Airdrie and Shotts

The MP elected in 2010 was Pamela Nash.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8441	14069	21107	30104	18430
LAB	20849	17013	20215	22369	20112
LD	2898	0	921	3109	1732
CON	3133	3312	2984	3361	3198

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

The MP elected in 2010 was Sandra Osborne.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8276	15481	15964	26432	16538
LAB	21632	16721	11780	19771	17476
LD	4264	0	844	3897	2251
CON	11721	11950	10572	10712	11239

Central Ayrshire

The MP elected in 2010 was Brian Donohoe.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8364	15259	20998	27249	17968
LAB	20950	16251	15654	19987	18211
LD	5236	0	1106	4995	2834
CON	8943	9163	10778	8532	9354

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

The MP elected in 2010 was Gregg McClymont.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	9794	16255	20724	27927	18675
LAB	23549	19146	16364	23478	20634
LD	3924	0	1667	3912	2376
CON	3407	3613	3375	3397	3448

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

The MP elected in 2010 was David Mundell.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	4945	12150	19752	21473	14580
LAB	13263	8353	19143	12611	13343
LD	9080	3068	4607	8633	6347
CON	17457	17686	12650	16598	16098

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

The MP elected in 2010 was Michael McCann.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	11738	19737	23910	33832	22304
LAB	26241	20790	19369	28246	23662
LD	5052	0	521	5438	2753
CON	6613	6868	4923	7118	6381

East Lothian

The MP elected in 2010 was Fiona O’Donnell.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	7883	15601	17771	27467	17181
LAB	21919	16659	16776	24346	19925
LD	8288	1848	2392	9206	5434
CON	9661	9907	6316	10731	9154

Edinburgh North and Leith

The MP elected in 2010 was Mark Lazarowicz.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	4568	12003	19947	28813	16333
LAB	17740	12673	19526	18790	17182
LD	16016	9812	7526	16964	12580
CON	7079	7316	6174	7498	7017

Edinburgh South

The MP elected in 2010 was Ian Murray.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	3354	10231	24887	20340	14703
LAB	15215	10528	21613	14727	15521
LD	14899	9161	10826	14422	12327
CON	9452	9671	12304	9149	10144

Edinburgh South West

The MP elected in 2010 was Alistair Darling.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5530	12668	30824	24659	18420
LAB	19473	14609	24440	19884	19602
LD	8194	2238	15761	8367	8640
CON	11026	11253	19254	11259	13198

Glasgow North

The MP elected in 2010 was Ann McKechin.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	3530	8179	18436	44811	18739
LAB	13181	10012	18693	21010	15724
LD	9283	5404	2339	14797	7956
CON	2089	2237	3158	3330	2704

Glasgow North West

The MP elected in 2010 was John Robertson.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5430	11016	19257	45552	20314
LAB	19233	15426	19239	28055	20488
LD	5622	961	2339	8201	4281
CON	3537	3715	3462	5159	3968

Glasgow South West

The MP elected in 2010 was Ian Davidson.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5192	10182	12713	31076	14791
LAB	19863	16462	12466	21405	17549
LD	2870	0	612	3093	1644
CON	2084	2243	1645	2246	2055

Glenrothes

The MP elected in 2010 was Lindsay Roy.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8799	15158	26004	27296	19314
LAB	25247	20913	21924	26983	23767
LD	3108	0	1489	3322	1980
CON	2922	3125	3647	3123	3204

Lanark and Hamilton East

The MP elected in 2010 was Jimmy Hood.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	9780	17089	29748	31812	22107
LAB	23258	18277	23492	25145	22543
LD	5249	0	744	5675	2917
CON	6981	7214	7350	7547	7273

Paisley and Renfrewshire North

The MP elected in 2010 was James Sheridan.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8333	15195	18931	25212	16918
LAB	23613	18936	17879	19258	19922
LD	4597	0	1581	3749	2482
CON	6381	6600	7086	5204	6318

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

The MP elected in 2010 was Charles Kennedy.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5263	10733	14956	21292	13061
LAB	5265	1537	4335	4522	3915
LD	18335	13771	9603	15748	14364
CON	4260	4434	2904	3659	3814

List of average constituencies

North East Fife

The MP elected in 2010 was Sir Menzies Campbell.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5685	11975	14469	28289	15105
LAB	6869	2582	6006	7136	5648
LD	17763	12515	8595	18453	14332
CON	8715	8915	6037	9054	8180

Glasgow Central

The MP elected in 2010 was Anas Sarwar.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5357	10158	29409	63792	27179
LAB	15908	12636	25020	38414	22995
LD	5010	1004	2091	12098	5051
CON	2158	2311	4235	5211	3479

Glasgow South

The MP elected in 2010 was Tom Harris.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8078	14373	21763	43576	21948
LAB	20736	16446	16692	26783	20164
LD	4739	0	1608	6121	3117
CON	4592	4792	3796	5931	4778

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

The MP elected in 2010 was Cathy Jamieson.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	12082	19391	21489	32251	21303
LAB	24460	19479	14615	25578	21033
LD	3419	0	827	3575	1955
CON	6592	6825	4730	6893	6260

Midlothian

The MP elected in 2010 was David Hamilton.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8100	14261	12657	26370	15347
LAB	18449	14250	8363	21017	15520
LD	6711	1570	3329	7645	4814
CON	4661	4857	2640	5310	4367

List of easy constituencies

Aberdeen North

The MP elected in 2010 was Frank Doran.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8385	14304	26484	28781	19489
LAB	16746	12712	17538	24019	17754
LD	7001	2062	4752	10042	5964
CON	4666	4855	5841	6692	5514

Aberdeen South

The MP elected in 2010 was Anne Begg.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5102	11858	19273	24213	15112
LAB	15722	11117	12483	14626	13487
LD	12216	6579	5752	11365	8978
CON	8914	9129	5692	8293	8007

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

The MP elected in 2010 was Sir Robert Smith.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	7086	14182	24404	25907	17895
LAB	6159	1323	5720	6530	4933
LD	17362	11441	10603	18408	14454
CON	13678	13904	11002	14502	13272

Argyll and Bute

The MP elected in 2010 was Alan Reid.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8563	15660	18885	26324	17358
LAB	10274	5437	10360	10772	9211
LD	14292	8370	3652	14984	10325
CON	10861	11087	6555	11387	9973

North Ayrshire and Arran

The MP elected in 2010 was Katy Clark.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	11965	19205	23346	35304	22455
LAB	21860	16926	15561	23845	19548
LD	4630	0	931	5050	2653
CON	7212	7443	5361	7867	6971

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

The MP elected in 2010 was John Thurso.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5516	10033	12423	24840	13203
LAB	7081	4003	4880	8696	6165
LD	11907	8138	5730	14623	10100
CON	3744	3888	2633	4598	3716

East Dunbartonshire

The MP elected in 2010 was Jo Swinson.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	5054	12582	23227	25751	16654
LAB	16367	11237	22009	14939	16138
LD	18551	12270	3573	16933	12832
CON	7431	7671	6013	6783	6975

Dundee West

The MP elected in 2010 was James McGovern.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	10716	16545	22082	28124	19367
LAB	17994	14022	10005	15155	14294
LD	4233	0	1453	3565	2313
CON	3461	3647	3497	2915	3380

Edinburgh East

The MP elected in 2010 was Sheila Gilmore.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8133	14392	34167	27500	21048
LAB	17314	13048	31765	18025	20038
LD	7751	2529	11578	8069	7482
CON	4358	4557	10928	4537	6095

Edinburgh West

The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Crockart.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	6115	13407	30985	22615	18281
LAB	12881	7911	24096	13716	14651
LD	16684	10599	15814	17765	15216
CON	10767	10999	15468	11465	12175

Falkirk

The MP elected in 2010 was Eric Joyce.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	15364	23336	26936	33659	24824
LAB	23207	17774	18391	26306	21420
LD	5225	0	1220	5923	3092
CON	5698	5952	3965	6459	5519

Gordon

The MP elected in 2010 was Malcolm Bruce.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	10827	18485	27569	24418	20325
LAB	9811	4592	6273	9810	7622
LD	17575	11185	7724	17574	13515
CON	9111	9355	7026	9110	8651

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

The MP elected in 2010 was Danny Alexander.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8803	16196	22437	31937	19843
LAB	10407	5369	8678	10417	8718
LD	19172	13004	7443	19191	14703
CON	6278	6513	4868	6284	5986

Linlithgow and East Falkirk

The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Connarty.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	13081	21159	33053	36981	26069
LAB	25634	20129	24516	29501	24945
LD	6589	0	1789	7583	3990
CON	6146	6403	5162	7073	6196

Livingston

The MP elected in 2010 was Graeme Morrice.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	12424	19945	30256	33191	23954
LAB	23215	18089	21458	28163	22731
LD	5316	0	1464	6449	3307
CON	5158	5398	3992	6257	5201

Ochil and South Perthshire

The MP elected in 2010 was Gordon Banks.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	13944	21868	18612	31212	21409
LAB	19131	13731	6635	22543	15510
LD	5754	0	2077	6780	3653
CON	10342	10594	8533	12186	10414

Stirling

The MP elected in 2010 was Anne McGuire.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	8091	15445	23251	25010	17949
LAB	19558	14546	15295	19321	17180
LD	6797	661	1941	6715	4029
CON	11254	11488	6827	11118	10172

List of safe constituencies

Angus

The MP elected in 2010 was Michael Weir.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	15020	20980	15487	24969	19114
LAB	6535	2473	3561	9409	5495
LD	4090	0	1256	5889	2809
CON	11738	11928	6050	16901	11654

Banff and Buchan

The MP elected in 2010 was Eilidh Whiteford.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	15868	21907	29768	27408	23738
LAB	5382	1266	4105	10403	5289
LD	4365	0	4033	8437	4209
CON	11841	12033	7290	22888	13513

Dundee East

The MP elected in 2010 was Stewart Hosie.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	15350	21719	29102	35571	25436
LAB	13529	9188	9983	17616	12579
LD	4285	0	1588	5579	2863
CON	6177	6380	6160	8043	6690

Moray

The MP elected in 2010 was Angus Robertson.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	16273	22711	18467	27232	21171
LAB	7007	2620	3839	10945	6103
LD	5956	584	1421	9303	4316
CON	10683	10888	6324	16687	11146

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

The MP elected in 2010 was Angus MacNeil.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	6723	9034	8496	9195	8362
LAB	4838	3263	3724	7750	4894
LD	1097	0	228	1757	771
CON	647	721	563	1036	742

Perth and North Perthshire

The MP elected in 2010 was Peter Wishart.

Party	2010	Swing	2011	2014	Avg
SNP	19118	26696	23577	26613	24001
LAB	7923	2758	3999	11142	6456
LD	5954	0	1948	8373	4069
CON	14739	14980	10835	20727	15320

108 thoughts on “Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win?”

ScotsRon

05/10/2014 at 12:12

RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/TZgJud5OlI #YesPlus #SNP
BobDodClark

05/10/2014 at 12:25

RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/TZgJud5OlI #YesPlus #SNP
alicmurray

05/10/2014 at 12:33

RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/TZgJud5OlI #YesPlus #SNP
wee162

05/10/2014 at 12:40

@kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesPlus #SNP
kwr66

05/10/2014 at 12:42

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
kwr66

05/10/2014 at 12:43

@wee162 @arcofprosperity that makes interesting reading. Or it reads like a Stephen King novel is you’re a Labour MP. Ty mate.
titch751

05/10/2014 at 12:43

RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/TZgJud5OlI #YesPlus #SNP
WingsScotland

05/10/2014 at 12:45

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
DavidDhenry

05/10/2014 at 12:45

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
Crannogphoto

05/10/2014 at 12:50

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
kwr66

05/10/2014 at 12:54

@wee162 @arcofprosperity it’s interesting an SNP activist stating that YES in Glasgow does not = SNP. Tacit alliance?
stevengardner74

05/10/2014 at 12:55

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
wee162

05/10/2014 at 12:56

@kwr66 @arcofprosperity has to be imo. SNP have to give up a little to have 100% support. Go for top 40-45 seats, rest combo of Yes cand…
lloopyliz

05/10/2014 at 13:00

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
StFilansDream

05/10/2014 at 13:01

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
MagusFreedus

05/10/2014 at 13:03

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
Fuertes73

05/10/2014 at 13:07

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
Tab22Tab

05/10/2014 at 13:08

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
martinmacdonald

05/10/2014 at 13:12

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
euan_hart

05/10/2014 at 13:13

@wee162 @kwr66 @arcofprosperity good stuff. Sure the strategists are working it out. If we get it right, 40+ snp mps will be carnage at WM
EastwoodSNP

05/10/2014 at 13:17

RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/TZgJud5OlI #YesPlus #SNP
shonzy8

05/10/2014 at 13:18

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
euan_hart

05/10/2014 at 13:19

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
harvestcellar

05/10/2014 at 13:21

@wee162 @WingsScotland @kwr66 @arcofprosperity genuinely might move to Glasgow east just to vote against mags
euan_hart

05/10/2014 at 13:24

@harvestcellar @wee162 @WingsScotland @kwr66 @arcofprosperity I’m moving pre GE (planned) considering kdy to work against GBrown from E.Fife
NatashaPolitics

05/10/2014 at 13:24

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
euan_hart

05/10/2014 at 13:26

@harvestcellar @wee162 @WingsScotland @kwr66 @arcofprosperity ming Campbell here, now. Bawbag in kdy. Both tough snp seats unfortunately.
kwr66

05/10/2014 at 13:28

@euan_hart @wee162 @arcofprosperity temperate language required in the long campaign towards Indy. It’ll be a strategically useful position;
kwr66

05/10/2014 at 13:30

@euan_hart @harvestcellar @wee162 @WingsScotland @arcofprosperity individual actions become mighty torrents.
kwr66

05/10/2014 at 13:32

@euan_hart @harvestcellar @wee162 @WingsScotland @arcofprosperity all these actors have parts for but a short while. Time and tide;)
fuzzball61

05/10/2014 at 13:37

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
wee162

05/10/2014 at 13:38

@kwr66 @euan_hart @arcofprosperity aim for 59 pro indy MPs elected… Use first past the post against those who maintain it…
euan_hart

05/10/2014 at 13:39

@kwr66 @harvestcellar @wee162 @WingsScotland @arcofprosperity just thinking E.Fife wont fall till ming steps down. cant be too long tbh
wee162

05/10/2014 at 13:42

@euan_hart @kwr66 @harvestcellar @WingsScotland @arcofprosperity no so sure. He’s sat alongside the tories. Tricky to get out from that.
boogs49

05/10/2014 at 13:45

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
euan_hart

05/10/2014 at 13:49

@wee162 @kwr66 @harvestcellar @WingsScotland @arcofprosperity Nearly any other libdem and I’d agree. Maj will weaken but will hold imo
euan_hart

05/10/2014 at 13:49

@wee162 @kwr66 @harvestcellar @WingsScotland @arcofprosperity I’m often wrong about things though 🙂
kwr66

05/10/2014 at 13:50

@euan_hart @wee162 @harvestcellar @WingsScotland @arcofprosperity ever so humble Euan;)
roblwilson

05/10/2014 at 13:52

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
Fanilow19

05/10/2014 at 14:06

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
BITSOFWOOD

05/10/2014 at 14:24

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
mykilmarnock

05/10/2014 at 14:52

@arcofprosperity With Labour keeping neuks and supporting welfare cuts the question should be Which Westminster seats can Labour win?
Vilinthril

05/10/2014 at 18:00

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
Angry Weegie

05/10/2014 at 18:37

The most surprising thing (do I really mean this?) is the number of Labour MPs I have almost never heard of, Gemma Doyle?, Thomas Docherty?, …
- thomas
  
  05/10/2014 at 21:48
  
  Yes, I know. I can understand that the constituencies that have a high-profile MP feel they can benefit from this, but many of the Labour seats would get much better representation if they elect the SNP candidate.
- IainTaylor2014
  
  21/10/2014 at 13:35
  
  Funnily enough, I had never heard to this Docherty character until I discovered he had the highest personal expenses of any SLab MP at just under £50,000 for last year alone. These are purely the personal expenses and don’t cover office and staff costs. He even outdid Jim Murphy, Margaret Curran and Anas Sarwar who really know how to milk the system. Just because I’d never heard of him doesn’t mean he’s a nobody, though: doubtless he is standing astride a world stage and is pivotal to the world of politics.
BBScotland

05/10/2014 at 18:55

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
Pantone300

05/10/2014 at 20:26

Was just looking at the first constituency, the most formidable, Russell Brown’s Dumfries & Galloway.
In 2010 Labour won on 46.5%. Tories 2nd on 32%, then SNP on 12.4% and LibDem on 8.9%.
Now lets assume that 95% of those Tories voted no and will vote Tory in 2015. That means Tories get 30% of the vote. This would leave 70% of votes up for grabs. Now lets just say we can persuade everyone who voted yes to vote SNP. This would give SNP 36% of the votes (The whole of D&G voted 36% yes). This would leave Labour with 34%. So the tactic has to be to get the yes people to vote SNP and if we can do this we can even take the most formidable constituency. What do you think folks? Too much to ask?
- thomas
  
  05/10/2014 at 21:52
  
  Yes, I agree. Just like in East Renfrewshire (where I live), I reckon many people vote Labour to keep the Tories out in Dumfries and Galloway. This means that the SNP’s task is to convince the anti-Tory voters that only the SNP will provide real opposition to the Conservatives and that the political developments since 2010 mean the SNP are the main challengers to the Tories anyway.
tutemmeum

05/10/2014 at 20:45

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
Taranaich

05/10/2014 at 21:34

What about the 2011 Inverclyde by-election following the death of David Cairns? That showed a significant growth in SNP votes and a drop in Labour within the space of a single year:

SNP 6577 (17.5%)
Lab 20993 (56%)
LD 5007 (13.3%)
Con 4502 (12%)

to

SNP 9280 (33%)
Lab 15118 (53.8%)
LD 627 (2.2%)
Con 2784 (9.9%)

That’s an 8.9% swing from Labour to SNP within a single year and a doubling of SNP vote percentage, while the Conservative & Lib Dems haemorraged votes. I don’t know whether it’d be enough to upgrade Inverclyde from “challenging” to “tough,” but surely it’s worth consideration as the most recent Inverclyde MP election?
- thomas
  
  05/10/2014 at 21:57
  
  Definitely. All the tables were generated computationally based on published tables, and in this case these tables didn’t include information about by-elections. In other words, the information in this blog post is not complete and extra data can be added in many places to make even more convincing cases for potential SNP victories.
  - Taranaich
    
    05/10/2014 at 23:39
    
    Thanks for the reply: this post is a really great resource.
    - thomas
      
      06/10/2014 at 09:46
      
      I’m glad you’re finding it useful!
ewan1792

05/10/2014 at 21:34

Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/p1GrlSK1uK
arcofprosperity

05/10/2014 at 22:09

This morning’s blog post now includes a map! Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/iJ6G3TqWGs #Westminster2015
benarty

05/10/2014 at 22:54

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
arcofprosperity

06/10/2014 at 10:47

@flyingdavy @ChristinaSNP Anyway, did you see my predictions yesterday? http://t.co/iJ6G3TqWGs
flyingdavy

06/10/2014 at 10:50

@arcofprosperity @ChristinaSNP yes and I hope they hold I foresee a protracted campaign anti yes, as the WM parties power play
SLFIScotland

06/10/2014 at 11:02

RT @arcofprosperity: @flyingdavy @ChristinaSNP Anyway, did you see my predictions yesterday? http://t.co/iJ6G3TqWGs
davidbowman73

06/10/2014 at 11:02

RT @arcofprosperity: @flyingdavy @ChristinaSNP Anyway, did you see my predictions yesterday? http://t.co/iJ6G3TqWGs
wee162

06/10/2014 at 13:10

@CJTerry here is something that @arcofprosperity done. http://t.co/t8DxT1qw0t
And broad alliance was founded in Yes campaign…
arcofprosperity

07/10/2014 at 11:07

@PeterKGeoghegan Absolutely. The incumbency effect is huge, and tactical voting matters too. Perhaps 28 SNP seats? http://t.co/iJ6G3TqWGs
arcofprosperity

07/10/2014 at 11:34

@_mozza_ http://t.co/iJ6G3TqWGs @DouglasDaniel @PeterKGeoghegan
_mozza_

07/10/2014 at 12:04

@arcofprosperity @DouglasDaniel @PeterKGeoghegan thanks!
JMchools

07/10/2014 at 14:39

Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/3a34Wxi7m2
YesNairn

07/10/2014 at 19:47

Hummm…
http://t.co/SKgdg7VK9Z http://t.co/J1eOQ2trEX
weemokerr

08/10/2014 at 00:39

RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/TZgJud5OlI #YesPlus #SNP
ebreah

08/10/2014 at 09:56

RT @wee162: @kwr66 RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/2BhDX4q2M4 #YesP…
ebreah

08/10/2014 at 10:03

RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/TZgJud5OlI #YesPlus #SNP
john jack

08/10/2014 at 14:10

Brilliant
AndrewMcMorrin

08/10/2014 at 22:19

Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/9oq7B1pTqV
lillenoir

08/10/2014 at 22:23

RT @AndrewMcMorrin: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/9oq7B1pTqV
ndls61

08/10/2014 at 22:24

Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/Bls8fdQmfO
ndls61

08/10/2014 at 22:25

RT @AndrewMcMorrin: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/9oq7B1pTqV
Jcqdnld

08/10/2014 at 22:28

RT @ndls61: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/Bls8fdQmfO
kieranmcgeeee

08/10/2014 at 22:35

RT @ndls61: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/Bls8fdQmfO
stevengardner74

08/10/2014 at 22:43

RT @AndrewMcMorrin: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/9oq7B1pTqV
alextickell

08/10/2014 at 23:13

RT @AndrewMcMorrin: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/9oq7B1pTqV
WattsWilma

08/10/2014 at 23:19

Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/GoIvBKJJ7H
allan_duffy

09/10/2014 at 17:28

This is interesting Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey is on list Westminster seats the SNP can realistically win? http://t.co/oVCXnw22q7
- thomcoss
  
  11/10/2014 at 10:40
  
  Well done!
  Two points to question. Will there be a UKIP presence?
  Will there be YES ALLayeANCE candidates anywhere (rather than SNP?}
PrestwickSNP

09/10/2014 at 19:44

http://t.co/OWZr0nQT5t http://t.co/4Uc2dJFoGu
DMHull

09/10/2014 at 20:00

RT @PrestwickSNP: http://t.co/OWZr0nQT5t http://t.co/4Uc2dJFoGu
Pingback: The Guarantors of Devolution | A Wilderness of Peace
Jakimclaren

21/10/2014 at 20:16

RT @jakimccarthy: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? #the45 #indyref http://t.co/NttjIzw0ob
ShamrockSeamie

21/10/2014 at 20:37

RT @jakimccarthy: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? #the45 #indyref http://t.co/NttjIzw0ob
LeadOnMcYES

21/10/2014 at 23:31

Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/RaGLnjB46O Interesting analysis. Let’s make WM reconsider#YESALLIANCE#SNP
David Jamieson

22/10/2014 at 01:25

The methodology here is completely wonky. All three approaches you have taken are liable to massively over-state the SNP vote.

1.The Polls are expected to widen, putting Labour significantly ahead in the run-up to the election. So judging by today’s Polls is useless.

2.The SNP tends to record far higher votes in Holyrood than Westminster, so judging 2015 by 2011 is useless.

3. Judging SNP and Labour votes by the referendum? That’s a real howler. Anywhere up to 40% Labour voted Yes, and and around 15% SNP voted No. People were voting on the issue, not out of party-political allegiance.
- thomas
  
  22/10/2014 at 09:03
  
  Thanks for your comment! Let me reply to your points:
  
  (1) I don’t agree that the polls are expected to widen, and I’m not sure why you think they will. Normally the sitting government gains votes in an election campaign, but neither Labour nor the SNP is in government in Westminster.
  
  (2) It’s true that the SNP normally underperforms in Westminster elections compared to Scottish, European and Council elections, but surely this is a historic anomaly caused by the FPTP system that will end at some point. I agree this is a reason not to be too optimistic on the SNP’s behalf, but perhaps the referendum will be the straw that broke Labour’s back and makes many voters stop voting Labour for Westminster. Time will show.
  
  (3) The point of including the referendum results was to show the potential success of a Yes Alliance. If the 40% of Labour voters who voted Yes can be persuaded to vote Yes Alliance to achieve independence sooner rather than later, then almost all seats are up for grabs.
- Taranaich
  
  11/05/2015 at 22:57
  
  Isn’t it funny that it was the referendum prediction which proved to be closest after all?
  
  “This means that according to uniform swing, the SNP stands to win 24 seats, but if we can convince the voters to vote like they did in 2011, the SNP will get no less than 45 seats, and if we can replicate the referendum result, a total of 56 seats is possible.”
  
  Gotta say, Thomas called it!
  - thomas
    
    11/05/2015 at 23:36
    
    I know, I know, I just wish I’d rushed down to the bookies in October! 🙁
lumi_1984

22/10/2014 at 07:58

RT @JMchools: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/3a34Wxi7m2
Kevcanderson78

22/10/2014 at 09:00

RT @JMchools: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? http://t.co/3a34Wxi7m2
45Scot

22/10/2014 at 14:44

They can only win if you vote for them, so what you gonna do? http://t.co/TpU5YhLMpZ
patronsaintofca

22/10/2014 at 19:04

Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? | Arc of Prosperity http://t.co/tY5SvB4PJm
cat1stephens

22/10/2014 at 19:12

RT @patronsaintofca: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? | Arc of Prosperity http://t.co/tY5SvB4PJm
GreerBuilders

22/10/2014 at 19:12

RT @patronsaintofca: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? | Arc of Prosperity http://t.co/tY5SvB4PJm
NursieDear25

22/10/2014 at 19:19

RT @patronsaintofca: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? | Arc of Prosperity http://t.co/tY5SvB4PJm
MaccormickPeggy

22/10/2014 at 19:39

RT @patronsaintofca: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? | Arc of Prosperity http://t.co/tY5SvB4PJm
BigGsaysYes

22/10/2014 at 19:42

RT @patronsaintofca: Which Westminster seats can the SNP realistically win? | Arc of Prosperity http://t.co/tY5SvB4PJm
WattsWilma

22/10/2014 at 21:27

http://t.co/GmFXDj8kei
MillarGerard

22/10/2014 at 22:32

http://t.co/djQ8VYZY3U
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