Leaflets, posters, Facebook ads and all that
I went along to Yes Eastwood’s meeting with Paul Kavanagh earlier this week, and it was good. It was yet another small sign that the second independence campaign has already started.
So far, however, most of the campaigning seems to be happening through meetings and marches, both of which mainly speak to the converted. I’m sure some people are also out pro-indy canvassing or doing street stalls, but it’s not my impression that it’s widespread (concentrating here on pro-Yes activity – SNP canvassing of course does happen a lot).
More importantly, I haven’t seen any materials. During the first independence campaign, Yes Scotland mainly let the local groups get on with campaigning on their own, but they did produce a number of leaflets and posters. They might even have produced Facebook ads, although I’m not sure about that. Who’s doing that now?
In theory the various local groups could produce materials on their own, but it would lead to a lot of work being duplicated – and leaflets are much cheaper when printed in large quantities.
There are plenty of activists to ensure the leaflets will get distributed to most households. We just need to make them. What are we waiting for?
What are we waiting for? In one word, clarity.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/time-to-prepare-for-brace-yourself-brexit-green-leader-says-1.3491116
Just as Ireland is going to be affected by whichever Brexit those morons in Westminster choose, so too is Scotland. Even if we limit ourselves to considering the options the EU has offered, there are still at least four primary outcomes.
1) Brexit cancelled – minimal effects, status quo maintained.
2) Soft Brexit – stay in SM&CU, status quo more or less maintained indefinitely but with moderate negative effects.
3) Hard Brexit – deal to leave SM&CU after 2020. Severe impact, with status quo maintained only until 2021.
4) Crash Brexit – Leaving with no deal. Immense impact, status quo shattered after March 2019.
There are at least two sub-options between 2 & 3, with various combinations of staying in and/or leaving the single market and customs union.
Faced with that range, how can independence campaigning materials be prepared? We need hard punching, simple, honest, comprehensible and memorable points. Yet if we start publishing all-inclusive leaflets, we guarantee that at least two thirds of the stuff we put on them won’t happen.
For example, I think #3/4 is most likely. This means independence would harden the border between England-Scotland. But if I’m wrong and Brexit is cancelled or the UK stays in SM&CU, the Scottish border issue becomes mostly irrelevant.
We should have enough clarity by the end of October to narrow the range. But until after March 2019, there will always be at least three possible outcomes to contend with.
Some groups have been doing stalls for months and leafletting too.