Digesting the results
I’m still trying to digest the results from yesterday’s Holyrood election. In order to try and understand what happened, I’ve created tables showing how the seats were distributed in each region.
The way to read them is as follows: First the constituency seats are ticked off (marked as “(Const)”), and then the list seats are distributed, starting with the one marked with “(1)”, continuing to “(2)”, and so on. The number before the brackets shows the number of list votes divided by the number of the row (that’s the way d’Hondt works). I’ve also shown who would hypothetically have received three additional list seats, marked with numbers in italics in square brackets.
Finally I’ve calculated how many more votes the SNP and the Greens would have needed in order to take the last list seat in each region.
I might blog some of my thoughts later, but I reckoned these figures might be useful to other people, even without any further analysis, so here they are.
Central Scotland
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | 43602 (2) | 67103 (1) | 12722 [10] | 5015 | 6088 |
| (Const) | 21801 (5) | 33551 (3) | 6361 | ||
| (Const) | 14534 (7) | 22367 (4) | |||
| (Const) | 10900 | 16775 (6) | |||
| (Const) | 13420 [8] | ||||
| (Const) | 11183 | ||||
| (Const) | |||||
| (Const) | |||||
| (Const) | |||||
| 12908 [9] | |||||
| 11734 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 14535. This means that the SNP needed 145350 instead of 129082 list votes, and that the Greens needed 14535 instead of 12722 list votes.
Glasgow
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | 29533 (3) | 59151 (1) | 23398 (4) | 5850 | 4889 |
| (Const) | 14766 (7) | 29575 (2) | 11699 [9] | ||
| (Const) | 9844 | 19717 (5) | 7799 | ||
| (Const) | 14787 (6) | ||||
| (Const) | 11830 [8] | ||||
| (Const) | 9858 | ||||
| (Const) | |||||
| (Const) | |||||
| (Const) | |||||
| 11110 [10] | |||||
| 10100 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 14767. This means that the SNP needed 147670 instead of 111101 list votes, and that the Greens needed 29534 instead of 23398 list votes.
Highlands and Islands
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | 44693 (1) | 22894 (2) | 14781 (5) | (Const) | 5344 |
| (Const) | 22346 (3) | 11447 (7) | 7390 | (Const) | |
| (Const) | 14897 (4) | 7631 | 9074 [10] | ||
| (Const) | 11173 [8] | 6805 | |||
| (Const) | 8938 | ||||
| (Const) | |||||
| 11657 (6) | |||||
| 10200 [9] | |||||
| 9066 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 11448. This means that the SNP needed 91584 instead of 81600 list votes, and that the Greens needed 22896 instead of 14781 list votes.
Lothian
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | (Const) | (Const) | 34551 (2) | (Const) | 5802 |
| (Const) | 37486 (1) | 33995 (3) | 17275 (7) | 9239 | |
| (Const) | 24990 (4) | 22663 (5) | 11517 | ||
| (Const) | 18743 (6) | 16997 [8] | |||
| (Const) | 14994 [10] | 13598 | |||
| (Const) | 12495 | ||||
| 16935 [9] | |||||
| 14818 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 17276. This means that the SNP needed 120932 instead of 118546 list votes.
Mid Scotland and Fife
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | 73293 (1) | 51373 (2) | 17860 (7) | (Const) | 5345 |
| (Const) | 36646 (3) | 25686 (4) | 8930 | 10200 | |
| (Const) | 24431 (5) | 17124 [8] | |||
| (Const) | 18323 (6) | 12843 | |||
| (Const) | 14658 [9] | ||||
| (Const) | 12215 | ||||
| (Const) | |||||
| (Const) | |||||
| 13347 [10] | |||||
| 12012 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 17861. This means that the SNP needed 160749 instead of 120128 list votes, and that the Greens needed 35722 instead of 17860 list votes.
North East Scotland
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | (Const) | 38791 (2) | 15123 [8] | 18444 (6) | 6376 |
| (Const) | 42924 (1) | 19395 (5) | 7561 | 9222 | |
| (Const) | 28616 (3) | 12930 | |||
| (Const) | 21462 (4) | ||||
| (Const) | 17169 (7) | ||||
| (Const) | 14308 [9] | ||||
| (Const) | 12264 | ||||
| (Const) | |||||
| (Const) | |||||
| 13708 [10] | |||||
| 12462 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 17170. This means that the SNP needed 171700 instead of 137086 list votes, and that the Greens needed 17170 instead of 15123 list votes.
South Scotland
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | (Const) | (Const) | 14773 [9] | 11775 | 6726 |
| (Const) | (Const) | 28036 (1) | 7386 | ||
| (Const) | (Const) | 18690 (5) | |||
| (Const) | (Const) | 14018 | |||
| 24043 (2) | 20150 (3) | ||||
| 20036 (4) | 16792 (7) | ||||
| 17173 (6) | 14393 [10] | ||||
| 15027 [8] | 12594 | ||||
| 13357 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 16793. This means that the SNP needed 134344 instead of 120217 list votes, and that the Greens needed 16793 instead of 14773 list votes.
West Scotland
| SNP | Cons | Labour | Green | LD | UKIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Const) | (Const) | (Const) | 17218 (7) | 12097 | 5856 |
| (Const) | 35764 (2) | 36272 (1) | 8609 | ||
| (Const) | 23842 (4) | 24181 (3) | |||
| (Const) | 17882 (6) | 18136 (5) | |||
| (Const) | 14305 [10] | 14508 [9] | |||
| (Const) | 11921 | 12090 | |||
| (Const) | |||||
| (Const) | |||||
| 15091 [8] | |||||
| 13582 |
To win the last list seat, you needed a figure of 17219. This means that the SNP needed 154971 instead of 135827 list votes.
Pingback: Taking Stock, Part Two: Responsibility | A Wilderness of Peace