Arc of Prosperity

Scottish Independence within the EU – with a Scandinavian Slant


2015 Westminster election live blog

Friday at 4.30: Labour has won Edinburgh South. It’s looking like this might be their only Scottish seat. Going to bed now.

Friday at 3.15: YES!!! Kirsten Oswald has beaten Jim Murphy! She’ll be a wonderful MP!

Friday at 2.45: The swing to the SNP is so big that it’s breaking my programs. I suspect the result so far would be a bright yellow map anyway…

Friday at 2.25: Wow, Mhairi Black has beaten Douglas Alexander by 23,548 votes to 17,864!!!

Friday at 1.45: Sorry for not posting for a while, but I’m still waiting for any figures that will teach us more than the exit poll.

Thursday at 22.35: YouGov’s final predictions (SNP 48%, Lab 28%, LD 7%, Con 14%) would according to my calculations be quite good for the Lib Dems in Scotland:

Constituency 2010 MP 2010 2015 Maj.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore LIB LIB 7715
Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael LIB LIB 3752
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Charles Kennedy LIB LIB 2385
North East Fife Sir Menzies Campbell LIB LIB 1786
Glasgow North East Willie Bain LAB LAB 1471
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown LAB LAB 1090
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell CON CON 951
East Renfrewshire Jim Murphy LAB LAB 632
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Tom Clarke LAB LAB 620
East Dunbartonshire Jo Swinson LIB LIB 577
Edinburgh West Michael Crockart LIB SNP 489
Glasgow South West Ian Davidson LAB SNP 836
Rutherglen and Hamilton West Tom Greatrex LAB SNP 1405
Motherwell and Wishaw Frank Roy LAB SNP 1908
Dunfermline and West Fife Thomas Docherty LAB SNP 1985
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso LIB SNP 2018
Paisley and Renfrewshire South Douglas Alexander LAB SNP 2439
Glasgow North Ann McKechin LAB SNP 2500
Glasgow North West John Robertson LAB SNP 2608
Inverclyde David Cairns LAB SNP 2979
West Dunbartonshire Gemma Doyle LAB SNP 3053
Glenrothes Lindsay Roy LAB SNP 3222
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander LIB SNP 3452
Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown LAB SNP 3477
Glasgow Central Anas Sarwar LAB SNP 3781
Glasgow East Margaret Curran LAB SNP 4077
Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling LAB SNP 4415
Edinburgh North and Leith Mark Lazarowicz LAB SNP 4532
Airdrie and Shotts Pamela Nash LAB SNP 4817
Paisley and Renfrewshire North James Sheridan LAB SNP 4849
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith LIB SNP 5520
Aberdeen South Anne Begg LAB SNP 5536
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Sandra Osborne LAB SNP 6073
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Gregg McClymont LAB SNP 6081
Glasgow South Tom Harris LAB SNP 6236
Gordon Malcolm Bruce LIB SNP 6371
Central Ayrshire Brian Donohoe LAB SNP 6775
East Lothian Fiona O’Donnell LAB SNP 6809
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Angus MacNeil SNP SNP 6819
Midlothian David Hamilton LAB SNP 7292
Edinburgh South Ian Murray LAB SNP 7727
Lanark and Hamilton East Jimmy Hood LAB SNP 7899
Stirling Anne McGuire LAB SNP 8127
Aberdeen North Frank Doran LAB SNP 8306
Edinburgh East Sheila Gilmore LAB SNP 8503
Kilmarnock and Loudoun Cathy Jamieson LAB SNP 9133
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Michael McCann LAB SNP 9241
Argyll and Bute Alan Reid LIB SNP 9818
Dundee West James McGovern LAB SNP 10486
North Ayrshire and Arran Katy Clark LAB SNP 11181
Linlithgow and East Falkirk Michael Connarty LAB SNP 11424
Livingston Graeme Morrice LAB SNP 11896
Angus Michael Weir SNP SNP 13428
Dundee East Stewart Hosie SNP SNP 13927
Banff and Buchan Eilidh Whiteford SNP SNP 14321
Falkirk Eric Joyce LAB SNP 16125
Moray Angus Robertson SNP SNP 16356
Ochil and South Perthshire Gordon Banks LAB SNP 17045
Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart SNP SNP 17246

Thursday at 22.10: Has nobody got actual figures from the exit poll, rather than just the seat predictions? I want to run my own programs! Apart from that, it’s not entirely clear to me whether the exit polls predictions are taking tactical voting into account, and the Lib Dems’ fortunes depend almost entirely on that.

Thursday at 22.05: The BBC/ITV exit poll is predicting CON 316 LAB 239, LD 10, UKIP 2, SNP 58, GREEN 2, OTH 25. If this turns out to be the final result, the Lib Dems will have been weakened so much that they can’t possibly enter government, and neither can they tie themselves to the Tories, so what happens then?

Thursday at 21.45: I’ll be live-blogging here during the night — I’ve updated my programs so that I can change my Scottish forecasts when we get the first exit polls and when the declarations start coming in.

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