2015 Westminster election live blog

Friday at 4.30: Labour has won Edinburgh South. It’s looking like this might be their only Scottish seat. Going to bed now.

Friday at 3.15: YES!!! Kirsten Oswald has beaten Jim Murphy! She’ll be a wonderful MP!

Friday at 2.45: The swing to the SNP is so big that it’s breaking my programs. I suspect the result so far would be a bright yellow map anyway…

Friday at 2.25: Wow, Mhairi Black has beaten Douglas Alexander by 23,548 votes to 17,864!!!

Friday at 1.45: Sorry for not posting for a while, but I’m still waiting for any figures that will teach us more than the exit poll.

Thursday at 22.35: YouGov’s final predictions (SNP 48%, Lab 28%, LD 7%, Con 14%) would according to my calculations be quite good for the Lib Dems in Scotland:

Thursday at 22.10: Has nobody got actual figures from the exit poll, rather than just the seat predictions? I want to run my own programs! Apart from that, it’s not entirely clear to me whether the exit polls predictions are taking tactical voting into account, and the Lib Dems’ fortunes depend almost entirely on that.

Thursday at 22.05: The BBC/ITV exit poll is predicting CON 316 LAB 239, LD 10, UKIP 2, SNP 58, GREEN 2, OTH 25. If this turns out to be the final result, the Lib Dems will have been weakened so much that they can’t possibly enter government, and neither can they tie themselves to the Tories, so what happens then?

Thursday at 21.45: I’ll be live-blogging here during the night — I’ve updated my programs so that I can change my Scottish forecasts when we get the first exit polls and when the declarations start coming in.