Arc of Prosperity

Scottish Independence within the EU – with a Scandinavian Slant

opinion polls

The flatness of the polls

Opinion polls compared.
Opinion polls compared.
The Panelbase poll that was published today was basically another independence referendum opinion poll that didn’t register any statistically valid voter movements (given the sample size, plus or minus one or two points is definitely within the margin of error).

The dramatic changes we sometimes hear about come about because people compare the results from two different pollsters — if you look at one at a time, the polls have been practically static for months.

But why is that? My beloved wife offered the explanation that most voters actually aren’t very interested (yet), so they actually don’t pay much attention to all those fascinating stories that all the activists assume must be discussed at length over Scotland’s dining tables, which is why they don’t change their opinion, no matter how shallow it is.

If this is true, we all need to get better at talking to those uninterested voters and make them understand why this is so important, so that we can get the polls to start moving again!

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