Predicting the wardwise distribution of Yes and No votes
The prediction I made recently of the geographical distribution of Yes and No votes was very coarse — I only looked at the regions.
However, Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus was so kind as to point me towards some ward data (CSV format).
I applied the same percentages as last time for mapping political parties to Yes/No:
| SNP | Labour | Cons | LibDems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 81.7% | 25.8% | 5.9% | 26.2% |
| No | 18.3% | 74.2% | 94.1% | 73.8% |
Furthermore, I split the “other” parties (and independents) 50/50, and I allocated an extra 10% of the electorate to the Yes side, simply because I think there’ll be more interest in the independence referendum than in a council election, and I reckon this interest will benefit the Yes side.
In this way, the result for Scotland as a whole would be 51% Yes and 49% No.
Now we get to the interesting bit. Here are the results for all of Scotland’s electoral wards, sorted by ascending Yes vote (i.e., starting with the most unionist ward and ending with most nationalistic one):
| Council | Ward | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Renfrewshire | Newton Mearns South | 30% | 70% |
| Edinburgh | Colinton / Fairmilehead | 32% | 68% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Annandale East and Eskdale | 36% | 64% |
| Aberdeen | Hazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross | 37% | 63% |
| Edinburgh | Pentland Hills | 37% | 63% |
| Edinburgh | Corstorphine / Murrayfield | 37% | 63% |
| East Renfrewshire | Busby, Clarkston and Eaglesham | 37% | 63% |
| Aberdeenshire | Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside | 38% | 62% |
| South Ayrshire | Ayr West | 38% | 62% |
| Edinburgh | Meadows / Morningside | 38% | 62% |
| Argyll and Bute | South Kintyre | 39% | 61% |
| South Ayrshire | Ayr East | 39% | 61% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Abbey | 39% | 61% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South | 39% | 61% |
| Edinburgh | Southside / Newington | 39% | 61% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Bishopbriggs North and Torrance | 40% | 60% |
| Edinburgh | Inverleith | 40% | 60% |
| East Renfrewshire | Giffnock and Thornliebank | 40% | 60% |
| Stirling | Forth and Endrick | 40% | 60% |
| Aberdeen | Airyhall / Broomhill / Garthdee | 41% | 59% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Lochar | 41% | 59% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Annandale South | 41% | 59% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Mid and Upper Nithsdale | 41% | 59% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Bearsden North | 41% | 59% |
| Edinburgh | Almond | 41% | 59% |
| East Renfrewshire | Netherlee, Stamperland and Williamwood | 41% | 59% |
| Aberdeenshire | Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | 42% | 58% |
| Scottish Borders | Jedburgh and District | 42% | 58% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Nith | 42% | 58% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | North West Dumfries | 42% | 58% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Annandale North | 42% | 58% |
| Fife | Dunfermline Central | 42% | 58% |
| Fife | East Neuk and Landward | 42% | 58% |
| South Lanarkshire | Bothwell and Uddingston | 42% | 58% |
| East Renfrewshire | Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns North | 42% | 58% |
| Aberdeen | Midstocket / Rosemount | 43% | 57% |
| South Ayrshire | Prestwick | 43% | 57% |
| Scottish Borders | Kelso and District | 43% | 57% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Bearsden South | 43% | 57% |
| Edinburgh | Fountainbridge / Craiglockhart | 43% | 57% |
| Fife | St Andrews | 43% | 57% |
| Perth and Kinross | Perth City South | 43% | 57% |
| Aberdeen | Lower Deeside | 44% | 56% |
| Aberdeenshire | Banchory and Mid Deeside | 44% | 56% |
| South Ayrshire | Troon | 44% | 56% |
| South Ayrshire | Kyle | 44% | 56% |
| South Lanarkshire | Clydesdale East | 44% | 56% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Bishopbriggs South | 44% | 56% |
| East Lothian | North Berwick Coastal | 44% | 56% |
| Edinburgh | Forth | 44% | 56% |
| Edinburgh | Drum Brae / Gyle | 44% | 56% |
| Perth and Kinross | Strathallan | 44% | 56% |
| Argyll and Bute | Helensburgh Central | 45% | 55% |
| Scottish Borders | Mid Berwickshire | 45% | 55% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Stranraer and North Rhins | 45% | 55% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Castle Douglas and Glenkens | 45% | 55% |
| Scottish Borders | Tweeddale East | 45% | 55% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Milngavie | 45% | 55% |
| Dundee | The Ferry | 45% | 55% |
| Fife | Tay Bridgehead | 45% | 55% |
| Inverclyde | Inverclyde East | 45% | 55% |
| South Lanarkshire | Clydesdale North | 45% | 55% |
| Renfrewshire | Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank | 45% | 55% |
| Stirling | Stirling West | 45% | 55% |
| North Lanarkshire | Murdostoun | 46% | 54% |
| Angus | Kirriemuir and Dean | 46% | 54% |
| Argyll and Bute | Helensburgh and Lomond South | 46% | 54% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Dee | 46% | 54% |
| Scottish Borders | Tweeddale West | 46% | 54% |
| Edinburgh | City Centre | 46% | 54% |
| Falkirk | Lower Braes | 46% | 54% |
| Fife | Howe of Fife and Tay Coast | 46% | 54% |
| Fife | Cupar | 46% | 54% |
| Glasgow | Calton | 46% | 54% |
| Glasgow | Partick West | 46% | 54% |
| Aberdeenshire | Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford | 46% | 54% |
| Clackmannanshire | Clackmannanshire East | 46% | 54% |
| Perth and Kinross | Kinross-shire | 46% | 54% |
| Perth and Kinross | Almond and Earn | 46% | 54% |
| Perth and Kinross | Strathearn | 46% | 54% |
| South Lanarkshire | Rutherglen South | 46% | 54% |
| South Lanarkshire | Cambuslang West | 46% | 54% |
| Stirling | Dunblane and Bridge of Allan | 46% | 54% |
| Aberdeenshire | Westhill and District | 47% | 53% |
| South Ayrshire | Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton | 47% | 53% |
| South Ayrshire | Girvan and South Carrick | 47% | 53% |
| Scottish Borders | Hawick and Denholm | 47% | 53% |
| Scottish Borders | Selkirkshire | 47% | 53% |
| Scottish Borders | East Berwickshire | 47% | 53% |
| East Lothian | Haddington and Lammermuir | 47% | 53% |
| Edinburgh | Liberton / Gilmerton | 47% | 53% |
| Glasgow | East Centre | 47% | 53% |
| South Lanarkshire | Hamilton South | 47% | 53% |
| North Lanarkshire | Motherwell North | 47% | 53% |
| Aberdeenshire | North Kincardine | 48% | 52% |
| North Ayrshire | Kilwinning | 48% | 52% |
| Highland | East Sutherland and Edderton | 48% | 52% |
| North Lanarkshire | Strathkelvin | 48% | 52% |
| North Lanarkshire | Thorniewood | 48% | 52% |
| East Lothian | Preston / Seton / Gosford | 48% | 52% |
| East Lothian | Dunbar and East Linton | 48% | 52% |
| Edinburgh | Craigentinny / Duddingston | 48% | 52% |
| Glasgow | Govan | 48% | 52% |
| Glasgow | Pollokshields | 48% | 52% |
| Aberdeenshire | East Garioch | 48% | 52% |
| Aberdeenshire | Mid Formartine | 48% | 52% |
| Inverclyde | Inverclyde North | 48% | 52% |
| Fife | Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay | 48% | 52% |
| Stirling | Trossachs and Teith | 48% | 52% |
| Aberdeenshire | Mearns | 49% | 51% |
| Argyll and Bute | Kintyre and the Islands | 49% | 51% |
| South Ayrshire | Ayr North | 49% | 51% |
| Scottish Borders | Hawick and Hermitage | 49% | 51% |
| Fife | West Fife and Coastal Villages | 49% | 51% |
| Fife | Dunfermline South | 49% | 51% |
| South Lanarkshire | Avondale and Stonehouse | 49% | 51% |
| Edinburgh | Leith Walk | 49% | 51% |
| Falkirk | Falkirk South | 49% | 51% |
| Glasgow | Drumchapel / Anniesland | 49% | 51% |
| Inverclyde | Inverclyde West | 49% | 51% |
| South Lanarkshire | Hamilton North and East | 49% | 51% |
| Renfrewshire | Paisley East and Ralston | 49% | 51% |
| Renfrewshire | Paisley North West | 49% | 51% |
| Perth and Kinross | Strathmore | 49% | 51% |
| South Lanarkshire | Cambuslang East | 49% | 51% |
| East Ayrshire | Cumnock and New Cumnock | 50% | 50% |
| North Ayrshire | Dalry and West Kilbride | 50% | 50% |
| North Lanarkshire | Coatbridge West | 50% | 50% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Campsie and Kirkintilloch North | 50% | 50% |
| East Dunbartonshire | Kirkintilloch East and Twechar | 50% | 50% |
| North Lanarkshire | Kilsyth | 50% | 50% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Mid Galloway | 50% | 50% |
| South Lanarkshire | Clydesdale South | 50% | 50% |
| Edinburgh | Leith | 50% | 50% |
| Glasgow | North East | 50% | 50% |
| Glasgow | Newlands / Auldburn | 50% | 50% |
| Glasgow | Langside | 50% | 50% |
| Aberdeenshire | West Garioch | 50% | 50% |
| Aberdeenshire | Inverurie and District | 50% | 50% |
| Inverclyde | Inverclyde East Central | 50% | 50% |
| Inverclyde | Inverclyde South | 50% | 50% |
| West Lothian | Linlithgow | 50% | 50% |
| North Lanarkshire | Mossend and Holytown | 50% | 50% |
| North Lanarkshire | Wishaw | 50% | 50% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Beinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath | 50% | 50% |
| Renfrewshire | Houston, Crosslee and Linwood | 50% | 50% |
| South Lanarkshire | Rutherglen Central and North | 50% | 50% |
| Stirling | Stirling East | 50% | 50% |
| Aberdeen | Kingswells / Sheddocksley | 51% | 49% |
| Aberdeen | Torry / Ferryhill | 51% | 49% |
| Highland | Landward Caithness | 51% | 49% |
| Fife | Dunfermline North | 51% | 49% |
| South Lanarkshire | East Kilbride West | 51% | 49% |
| East Lothian | Musselburgh West | 51% | 49% |
| East Lothian | Fa’side | 51% | 49% |
| Edinburgh | Sighthill / Gorgie | 51% | 49% |
| Fife | Leven, Kennoway and Largo | 51% | 49% |
| Glasgow | Anderston / City | 51% | 49% |
| Glasgow | Garscadden / Scotstounhill | 51% | 49% |
| Glasgow | Linn | 51% | 49% |
| Highland | Inverness Ness-Side | 51% | 49% |
| East Ayrshire | Annick | 51% | 49% |
| Fife | Cowdenbeath | 51% | 49% |
| Fife | Lochgelly and Cardenden | 51% | 49% |
| Fife | Kirkcaldy North | 51% | 49% |
| Falkirk | Upper Braes | 51% | 49% |
| West Lothian | Fauldhouse and the Breich Valley | 51% | 49% |
| North Lanarkshire | Motherwell West | 51% | 49% |
| Renfrewshire | Erskine and Inchinnan | 51% | 49% |
| East Renfrewshire | Barrhead | 51% | 49% |
| East Ayrshire | Doon Valley | 52% | 48% |
| North Ayrshire | Irvine West | 52% | 48% |
| North Ayrshire | Kilbirnie and Beith | 52% | 48% |
| North Lanarkshire | Coatbridge North and Glenboig | 52% | 48% |
| Dundee | West End | 52% | 48% |
| Fife | Rosyth | 52% | 48% |
| Glasgow | Shettleston | 52% | 48% |
| Glasgow | Hillhead | 52% | 48% |
| Aberdeen | Bridge of Don | 52% | 48% |
| Inverclyde | Inverclyde South West | 52% | 48% |
| Highland | Inverness Millburn | 52% | 48% |
| East Ayrshire | Ballochmyle | 52% | 48% |
| Fife | The Lochs | 52% | 48% |
| Fife | Kirkcaldy Central | 52% | 48% |
| Midlothian | Penicuik | 52% | 48% |
| Midlothian | Dalkeith | 52% | 48% |
| Midlothian | Midlothian East | 52% | 48% |
| Renfrewshire | Johnstone South, Elderslie and Howwood | 52% | 48% |
| Perth and Kinross | Perth City Centre | 52% | 48% |
| Perth and Kinross | Strathtay | 52% | 48% |
| Highland | Fort William and Ardnamurchan | 52% | 48% |
| Highland | Black Isle | 52% | 48% |
| Aberdeen | Hilton / Stockethill | 53% | 47% |
| Aberdeen | Kincorth / Loirston | 53% | 47% |
| Angus | Arbroath West and Letham | 53% | 47% |
| Argyll and Bute | Mid Argyll | 53% | 47% |
| Scottish Borders | Leaderdale and Melrose | 53% | 47% |
| North Lanarkshire | Coatbridge South | 53% | 47% |
| North Lanarkshire | Cumbernauld North | 53% | 47% |
| West Dunbartonshire | Kilpatrick | 53% | 47% |
| East Lothian | Musselburgh East and Carberry | 53% | 47% |
| Glasgow | Craigton | 53% | 47% |
| Aberdeen | Dyce / Bucksburn / Danestone | 53% | 47% |
| Highland | Aird and Loch Ness | 53% | 47% |
| South Lanarkshire | Larkhall | 53% | 47% |
| West Lothian | Whitburn and Blackburn | 53% | 47% |
| Midlothian | Bonnyrigg | 53% | 47% |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland South | 53% | 47% |
| Renfrewshire | Paisley South West | 53% | 47% |
| Highland | Caol and Mallaig | 53% | 47% |
| South Lanarkshire | Blantyre | 53% | 47% |
| South Lanarkshire | Hamilton West and Earnock | 53% | 47% |
| Stirling | Castle | 53% | 47% |
| Stirling | Bannockburn | 53% | 47% |
| Aberdeen | George St / Harbour | 54% | 46% |
| Argyll and Bute | Lomond North | 54% | 46% |
| North Ayrshire | Irvine East | 54% | 46% |
| North Ayrshire | North Coast and Cumbraes | 54% | 46% |
| Highland | Thurso | 54% | 46% |
| North Lanarkshire | Bellshill | 54% | 46% |
| South Lanarkshire | East Kilbride Central South | 54% | 46% |
| Glasgow | Southside Central | 54% | 46% |
| Glasgow | Baillieston | 54% | 46% |
| Glasgow | Canal | 54% | 46% |
| Fife | Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages | 54% | 46% |
| Aberdeenshire | Ellon and District | 54% | 46% |
| Highland | Inverness Central | 54% | 46% |
| Highland | Badenoch and Strathspey | 54% | 46% |
| Fife | Burntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy | 54% | 46% |
| Fife | Kirkcaldy East | 54% | 46% |
| Falkirk | Grangemouth | 54% | 46% |
| West Lothian | Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh | 54% | 46% |
| Midlothian | Midlothian South | 54% | 46% |
| North Lanarkshire | Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig | 54% | 46% |
| Clackmannanshire | Clackmannanshire Central | 54% | 46% |
| Shetland Islands | Lerwick South | 54% | 46% |
| Renfrewshire | Paisley South | 54% | 46% |
| Highland | Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh | 54% | 46% |
| Highland | Eilean a’ Cheo | 54% | 46% |
| Aberdeen | Tillydrone / Seaton / Old Aberdeen | 55% | 45% |
| North Lanarkshire | Fortissat | 55% | 45% |
| Aberdeenshire | Turriff and District | 55% | 45% |
| West Dunbartonshire | Dumbarton | 55% | 45% |
| South Lanarkshire | East Kilbride East | 55% | 45% |
| South Lanarkshire | East Kilbride Central North | 55% | 45% |
| Falkirk | Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst | 55% | 45% |
| Glasgow | Maryhill / Kelvin | 55% | 45% |
| Glasgow | Springburn | 55% | 45% |
| Glasgow | Greater Pollok | 55% | 45% |
| Highland | Inverness West | 55% | 45% |
| Highland | Inverness South | 55% | 45% |
| East Ayrshire | Irvine Valley | 55% | 45% |
| South Lanarkshire | Clydesdale West | 55% | 45% |
| West Lothian | East Livingston and East Calder | 55% | 45% |
| Midlothian | Midlothian West | 55% | 45% |
| Moray | Fochabers Lhanbryde | 55% | 45% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Sgire an Rubha | 55% | 45% |
| Clackmannanshire | Clackmannanshire West | 55% | 45% |
| Orkney Islands | Kirkwall East | 55% | 45% |
| Highland | Dingwall and Seaforth | 55% | 45% |
| North Lanarkshire | Airdrie South | 56% | 44% |
| North Ayrshire | Ardrossan and Arran | 56% | 44% |
| Scottish Borders | Galashiels and District | 56% | 44% |
| Highland | North, West and Central Sutherland | 56% | 44% |
| Highland | Tain and Easter Ross | 56% | 44% |
| Dundee | Maryfield | 56% | 44% |
| Dundee | Coldside | 56% | 44% |
| Falkirk | Falkirk North | 56% | 44% |
| East Ayrshire | Kilmarnock East and Hurlford | 56% | 44% |
| West Lothian | Bathgate | 56% | 44% |
| Moray | Elgin City South | 56% | 44% |
| Moray | Forres | 56% | 44% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Steornabhagh a Deas | 56% | 44% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Steornabhagh a Tuath | 56% | 44% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | An Taobh Siar agus Nis | 56% | 44% |
| Orkney Islands | West Mainland | 56% | 44% |
| Argyll and Bute | Oban North and Lorn | 57% | 43% |
| Argyll and Bute | Dunoon | 57% | 43% |
| Highland | Wick | 57% | 43% |
| West Dunbartonshire | Clydebank Central | 57% | 43% |
| West Dunbartonshire | Clydebank Waterfront | 57% | 43% |
| Angus | Carnoustie and District | 57% | 43% |
| Highland | Culloden and Ardersier | 57% | 43% |
| West Lothian | Livingston South | 57% | 43% |
| Orkney Islands | Stromness and South Isles | 57% | 43% |
| Orkney Islands | East Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray | 57% | 43% |
| Orkney Islands | North Isles | 57% | 43% |
| Shetland Islands | North Isles | 57% | 43% |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland North | 57% | 43% |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland West | 57% | 43% |
| Renfrewshire | Renfrew South and Gallowhill | 57% | 43% |
| North Lanarkshire | Airdrie Central | 58% | 42% |
| Angus | Montrose and District | 58% | 42% |
| Argyll and Bute | Cowal | 58% | 42% |
| North Ayrshire | Saltcoats and Stevenston | 58% | 42% |
| Aberdeenshire | Central Buchan | 58% | 42% |
| West Dunbartonshire | Leven | 58% | 42% |
| Angus | Monifieth and Sidlaw | 58% | 42% |
| Dundee | Strathmartine | 58% | 42% |
| Edinburgh | Portobello / Craigmillar | 58% | 42% |
| Falkirk | Bonnybridge and Larbert | 58% | 42% |
| East Ayrshire | Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse | 58% | 42% |
| East Ayrshire | Kilmarnock South | 58% | 42% |
| West Lothian | Livingston North | 58% | 42% |
| Clackmannanshire | Clackmannanshire South | 58% | 42% |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland Central | 58% | 42% |
| Shetland Islands | Lerwick North | 58% | 42% |
| Renfrewshire | Johnstone North, Kilbarchan and Lochwinnoch | 58% | 42% |
| Perth and Kinross | Perth City North | 58% | 42% |
| Perth and Kinross | Blairgowrie and Glens | 58% | 42% |
| North Lanarkshire | Airdrie North | 59% | 41% |
| Angus | Forfar and District | 59% | 41% |
| Angus | Arbroath East and Lunan | 59% | 41% |
| Argyll and Bute | Oban South and the Isles | 59% | 41% |
| Aberdeenshire | Banff and District | 59% | 41% |
| Highland | Cromarty Firth | 59% | 41% |
| North Lanarkshire | Cumbernauld South | 59% | 41% |
| West Dunbartonshire | Lomond | 59% | 41% |
| Highland | Nairn | 59% | 41% |
| Falkirk | Bo’ness and Blackness | 59% | 41% |
| West Lothian | Armadale and Blackridge | 59% | 41% |
| Moray | Elgin City North | 59% | 41% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Na Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas nan Loch | 59% | 41% |
| Orkney Islands | Kirkwall West and Orphir | 59% | 41% |
| Dundee | Lochee | 60% | 40% |
| Falkirk | Denny and Banknock | 60% | 40% |
| Moray | Buckie | 60% | 40% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Sgire Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch | 60% | 40% |
| Renfrewshire | Renfrew North | 60% | 40% |
| Perth and Kinross | Highland | 60% | 40% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Wigtown West | 60% | 40% |
| Aberdeenshire | Troup | 61% | 39% |
| Dundee | East End | 61% | 39% |
| Fife | Glenrothes West and Kinglassie | 61% | 39% |
| Fife | Glenrothes Central and Thornton | 61% | 39% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Loch a Tuath | 61% | 39% |
| Clackmannanshire | Clackmannanshire North | 61% | 39% |
| Perth and Kinross | Carse of Gowrie | 61% | 39% |
| Aberdeen | Northfield | 62% | 38% |
| Angus | Brechin and Edzell | 62% | 38% |
| South Lanarkshire | East Kilbride South | 62% | 38% |
| Fife | Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch | 62% | 38% |
| East Ayrshire | Kilmarnock North | 62% | 38% |
| Moray | Heldon and Laich | 62% | 38% |
| North Lanarkshire | Abronhill, Kildrum and The Village | 63% | 37% |
| Moray | Keith and Cullen | 64% | 36% |
| Argyll and Bute | Isle of Bute | 65% | 35% |
| Dundee | North East | 65% | 35% |
| Moray | Speyside Glenlivet | 65% | 35% |
| Aberdeenshire | Peterhead North and Rattray | 68% | 32% |
| Aberdeenshire | Peterhead South and Cruden | 70% | 30% |
| Na h-Eileanan an lar | Barraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas | 70% | 30% |
| Aberdeenshire | Fraserburgh and District | 71% | 29% |
Because these figures add up to a very narrow Yes victory, they suggest that these figures are the minimum that will lead to a Yes vote. In other words, if the Isle of Bute doesn’t vote 65% Yes things aren’t looking good for the Yes side, and if Newton Mearns South votes 35% Yes, the No side should be very concerned.
RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Predicting the wardwise distribution of Yes and No votes http://t.co/9kYVbvPf3T #indyref
RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: Predicting the wardwise distribution of Yes and No votes http://t.co/9kYVbvPf3T #indyref
Pingback: Ward predictions sorted by council area | Arc of Prosperity
This would be a very interesting tool if it could be created so that it takes account of current polling information or could be made to produce results depending on differing info.
Does anyone have the skills to create that?
Oh, I could do it, but I’m not sure it’d tell us a lot. Most polls ask people about the voting intentions for Westminster, Holyrood and the independence referendum, not how they voted in the council elections last time, so you’d be making all sorts of assumptions that might not be true.
I created this list to give local campaigners some sort of idea what figure they should be targeting locally (in particular, given that I live in Newton Mearns, I wanted Yes East Renfrewshire members to understand that 35% Yes can actually be a very good result locally), and I think it fulfils this purpose, but unless you’ve got access to more data for each ward that I can use, I’m not sure it’d be useful to do much more.
I’m in East Ren too, Clarkston. I’m doing some door to door leafleting tomorrow night so nice to have a target in mind. Hope you’re right about the extra 10% 🙂
I do find it’s useful for your motivation when you live in East Ren to know that you don’t have to get 50% Yes to win. 🙂