The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales
To find out, I first calculated the changes in each party’s support in Scotland between 2010 and 2015. I measured this in terms of the electorate, so because the turnout went up, the figures don’t add up to zero.
I also decided to calculate the changes separately for each incumbent party, because the swings weren’t exactly the same (to be honest, the swings were actually more similar than I had expected, but they differences were still significant):
In Labour-held seats:
| CON | +0.7% |
| LAB | -9.2% |
| LD | -7.2% |
| SNP | +26.7% |
| OTH | +0.8% |
In LD-held seats:
| CON | -2.1% |
| LAB | -7.2% |
| LD | -3.6% |
| SNP | +23.5% |
| OTH | +1.0% |
In SNP-held seats:
| CON | +3.2% |
| LAB | -4.0% |
| LD | -4.6% |
| SNP | +14.3% |
| OTH | +1.0% |
In the Tory-held seat:
| CON | +5.0% |
| LAB | -8.3% |
| LD | -11.5% |
| SNP | +22.5% |
| OTH | +1.7% |
I then applied these changes to the 2010 results from England and Wales (treating Plaid Cymru as the equivalent of the SNP given they’re sister parties), and the results are truly astonishing: Cons 309, SNP/PC 221, LD 34, Lab 7, others 2.
When we add these figures to the actual results from Scotland, the 2015 election results would have looked as follows for Great Britain: Cons 310, SNP/PC 277, LD 35, Lab 8, others 2. This means it would probably have been possible to form a minority SNP government with support from the other non-Tory parties.
(In case anybody is interested, the seven surviving Labour MPs would have been elected in these constituencies: Bootle, Ealing Southall, East Ham, Knowsley, Liverpool Walton, Liverpool West Derby and Mitcham & Morden.)
Of course the SNP wouldn’t have achieved these results simply by standing in England, but it shows the potential for an English party that tries to emulate the SNP.
arcofprosperity: New blog post: The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co/dXf0bevC9U #GE… http://t.co/bYvm3OqfpY
Some fun crunching. RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co/7lzI03jLec #GE2015
RT @simonvarwell: Some fun crunching. RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co…
RT @simonvarwell: Some fun crunching. RT @arcofprosperity: New blog post: The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co…
interesting thought! The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co/4Bt32GMNip
RT @YesMonifieth: interesting thought! The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co/4Bt32GMNip
RT @YesMonifieth: interesting thought! The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co/4Bt32GMNip
The SNP would have won 221 seats in England and Wales http://t.co/hcXGC9bC6W
If there were an English party that emulated the SNP, what might have happened the other week? http://t.co/vvDNPeVb16 Just a fantasy?
RT @kim_harding: If there were an English party that emulated the SNP, what might have happened the other week? http://t.co/vvDNPeVb16 Just…
RT @kim_harding: If there were an English party that emulated the SNP, what might have happened the other week? http://t.co/vvDNPeVb16 Just…
@kim_harding @arcofprosperity yes 🙂
“English equivilsnt the the SNP” erm… The Tories are the ENGLISH NATIONAL PARTY!!! Has that FACT escaped you or did you simply not attend school that day??
Do the Tories support an English Parliament? No. Do they support English independence? No. Do they pursue anti-austerity policies? No. Are you sure you understood the blog post?