The future of UK politics

On 4th July 2024, Labour is poised to secure a remarkable victory, achieving an overwhelming majority of over 400 MPs. This decisive win for Labour will be mirrored by a historic defeat for the Conservatives, whose numbers in the House of Commons are expected to dwindle to fewer than 100 MPs – an unprecedented low. It’s even conceivable that the Liberal Democrats will outstrip the Tories in seat numbers, a notion that would have seemed far-fetched until now.

But what follows such a seismic shift in British politics?

Labour’s greatest challenge could very well emerge from within. With such a vast majority, internal divisions are likely to surface, potentially leading to situations where more Labour MPs oppose their own government’s proposals than do the opposition members.

Looking ahead, I foresee three potential scenarios for the UK’s political landscape:

1. Tory Revival: Although a resurgence of the Conservative Party is anticipated by some, I find this unlikely in the near term. Their current policies cater predominantly to Baby Boomers, alienating the under-40s demographic. For the Tories to regain significant ground, a radical overhaul of their platform would be necessary. While not impossible, such a transformation could take a decade or more, and other developments may render them obsolete in the interim.
2. Lib Dem Revival: Should the Liberal Democrats surpass the Tories in seat count on 4th July, they will assume the role of His Majesty’s Opposition. This elevated status would grant them substantial financial resources, increased media exposure and greater parliamentary influence. They could potentially replace the Tories as the main alternative to Labour. Whether they’ll position themselves to the right or left of Labour would depend on Labour’s governance and the political climate.
3. Emergence of a New Left-Wing Party: If Keir Starmer shifts the Labour Party significantly to the right, a breakaway faction of Labour MPs might join forces with the Greens to form a new, potent left-wing party. In such a scenario, Labour could pivot to become the main centre-right force, while this new Left/Green Party could emerge as a strong opposition.

All these scenarios are contingent upon the continuation of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) voting system. The introduction of proportional representation would radically transform the British political landscape. I sincerely hope it will happen, but I very much doubt it will.

Finally, I’m aware I haven’t said anything here about Scotland. It’s depressing to see the independence movement self-destroying, and I don’t see it bouncing back anytime soon. The big question will be whether Scots continue to believe in independence, even if there’s no political outlet for it, or whether they start seeing their long-term future in the UK.